Tag: Preparedness

Year 2020+1

bvinson2 Comments

Hi there folks, I’m trying to get into a rhythm of posting but this one will fall outside of that rhythm. I wanted to get some thoughts out there to help keep you focused and potentially provide insight you may not have considered.

Here we are on the day before the presidential inauguration. Many are projecting that now that the year 2020 is behind us and the new president is coming in, things are going to get back to normal.

I hope this is the case. I hope that we are truly on the road to recovery as a nation and across the globe.

If we are truly recovering, enjoy it.

I encourage you to keep your preparedness and readiness goals in mind though. This is not to say that we should run around with our hair on fire (this is never the correct response). This just means that as you go about your life, remember that you started on the preparedness journey for a reason and that reason has likely not subsided.

The year 2020 was harsh, primarily for three reasons. Unfortunately there doesn’t seem to have been a lot of progress made.

COVID

The COVID-19 virus is still a concern globally. Though it is most impactful to a small segment of the global community, for those people it can be extremely devastating. It should be taken seriously, especially for those folks and those closest to them. Even for those of us who think it has been over-hyped, it should still be taken seriously. There is no reason not to follow the basic protocols social distancing, wearing a mask (unless you have a physical reason not to), and washing your hands.

 I was a social distancing earlier-adopter. I haven’t liked people within six feet of me most of my life.

Some are hailing the arrival of the vaccine. Please remember that this vaccine is not intended to make you immune to the virus or even to keep you from spreading the virus. It keeps you from having symptoms. This can protect tens of thousands of people as, for most people, it is the symptoms that kill. Just keep in mind that it is still out there and that you still need to follow appropriate protocols for your personal situation and the protection of those you care about.

Expect mask mandates, continued social distancing, and other restrictions while a vaccine is developed that will actually halt the spread rather than halt the symptoms. My concern is that the current vaccines will provide false hope and people will become lax in the other preventative measures, allowing the virus to spread more easily or mutate at a faster rate than it otherwise would.

The Economy

With the lockdowns, the economy is still struggling. Even once the lockdowns are lifted, there is going to be a significant period where things will still need to unwind.

People who worked at businesses that will not open again will need to find jobs. Since the labor market will likely be flooded and businesses will just be getting back on their own feet, those jobs will likely come with a cut in pay, reducing overall consumer spending – which accounts for the majority of spending in a healthy economy. It can recover, but it will take time – and it will only start once people are allowed to work again.

The stimulus packages will need to be repaid. If they are not repaid, well, let’s not even focus on that. They have to be repaid. Government loans (which when you hear about deficit spending, that means the government is taking out a loan directly or indirectly) are repaid in two ways: taxes and inflation.

Higher taxes takes money out of the workers’ pockets by reducing money they have to spend and is a direct means of revenue for the government. Inflation takes money out of the pockets of the savers by reducing the value of money in savings, and is an indirect method by making money gained today be more valuable than money gained yesterday. I would expect both methods will be used. The Federal Reserve is already talking about letting inflation rise and the new administration has promised to remove the tax breaks of the soon-to-be-previous administration.

Add these factors together and we are likely to see a recession, if not a depression, as we come out of the lockdowns. It doesn’t have to be scary if you’re prepared for it. Unfortunately it is very difficult to prepare for it in with short-term actions.

Though the incoming administration as promised an extension on the eviction moratorium, this is not a forgiveness of debt. Those who cannot pay now are accruing a debt they may never be able to pay back and thus will face eviction once the moratoriums are lifted. In the meanwhile real estate is becoming more costly. Land owners must still make payments and maintain their properties. As this continues, it should be expected that many will sell (even at discounted prices) to avoid overhead on properties where they are losing money. This will likely result in a significant reduction in overall wealth in the nation, wealth that could have otherwise been used to rebuild. If you have investments in real estate (other than you primary residence), you may want to devote some time to your financial strategy with an advisor you can trust.

Social Issues

There have been no great advances in social issues over the last 9-12 months. All the same tensions that fueled the civil unrest of the summer of 2020 are still out there. Some segments of society are even more tense than they had been and even more unrest is being fueled. We’re currently seeing that over 20,000 National Guard from all 50 states have been deployed to Washington, D.C. and many state capitols are protecting themselves as well. Things have not calmed down yet.

Be aware of your surroundings as you go about your daily life – don’t let these issues keep you from having a daily life. Look a little further down the road that usual (literally) to make sure there aren’t road closures or obstacles.

Pay attention to entrances and exits from buildings. Most people try to leave a building by the same way they entered even if it is impractical. Be aware of side exits and rear exists. If things go sideways, don’t let “Employees Only” bar you from leaving by a safe exit. Get out the loading dock of the grocery store if you need to. If the situation warrants it, I’d much rather be outside and griped out by an angry store manager than be trapped in a building because I didn’t want to violate social norms.

The fact of the matter is that until we can talk, debate, and negotiate an agreement our society is going to continue to be splintered. Right now that is not an option. The outliers on each side are not willing to talk. My concern is that as long as differences cannot be settled by reasoned debate, they will be settled outside of reasoned debate. Most people I know, myself included, do not want that. It seems to be the direction we’re being led though.

Again, don’t be scared. Preparedness is not about being scared; it is about preventing being scared. When you are down to your last meal, you’re scared for food. When you’re down to your last dollar, you’re scared for money. When you cannot escape an attack, you’re scared for your safety. Prepare for these things and then you can stay alert for situations that impact you, but you have the resources and planning so you don’t have to be scared.

So while the calendar has turned, this year may end up looking a lot like last year. So rather than being in 2021, we may be in 2020+1. Let’s hope we can get it together so that this is the last 2020 we have to suffer through. In the meantime, keep to your preparedness goals. This is not the time to slack off.

The Basics: Shelter

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Though we all use it daily, shelter is one of the most misunderstood basics of personal preparedness. Let’s take a quick look at essential shelter ideas and how to make sure that we are doing what we need to do.

So Really, What is Shelter?

In the grand scheme, shelter is what protects you from the outside world. At this fundamental level, your skin could even be part of your shelter. Working out from there, obviously you have your clothing, protective gear (gloves, HAZMAT suits, goggles, etc.). Sleeping bags or blankets could also be considered shelter. Next we go to the more traditional thinking on shelter such as tarps, tents, houses, buildings and the like. In extreme circumstances, a shade tree or a snow cave could also be a form of shelter.

There is a common ‘survival’ adage called the Rule of 3’s that goes something like: you can survive 3 seconds in hostile conditions, 3 minutes without air, 3 days without water and 3 weeks without food. That’s a very general statement, but it is easy to remember and helps prioritize your needs. Of course the 3 seconds of hostile conditions assumes VERY hostile conditions such as, perhaps, hot lead screaming in your direction at over 900 feet per second. Regardless, thinking about it in terms of ‘shelter is really important’ we have a starting place from which to explore.

Breaking shelter into three different groups may help:

  • Biological
  • Clothing
  • Structural

Biological Shelter

Your biological shelter is literally the skin you’re in. It is the largest organ on your body and serves to keep ‘you’ separate from ‘not you’. As such, it needs to be in good condition and appropriate condition for your expected activities.

A primary goal in personal preparedness should be making sure that your first line of protection doesn’t get holes in it. Avoid cutting yourself. Cuts can provide an avenue for infection. Take active measures to reduce the likelihood of blisters – which can be extremely painful and, if ruptured, can also be a vector for infection. By this point, other skin penetrations such as being stabbed by a tree branch or knife or other even more violent penetrations of the skin should be seen as something to be avoided as well.

Other, lesser considered issues include chapped hands and lips, over dried out skin or overly saturated skin and sunburn. All of these conditions serve to reduce the protective value of your skin. Take protective action by using lip balm, moisturizing lotion and sun screen. Some may balk at the idea of using lotion. That’s fine. If you are in a prolonged situation where your hands start developing calluses, that is your body forming it own protection and will assist you. Until then, especially if you don’t have excess of experience in the outdoors, lotion will help preserve your skin’s elasticity and moisture in emergency situations. Diet and nutrition also assist in maintaining proper skin health.

Of course the primary way most people take care of their skin is by moving up the scale to the next layer of protection:

Clothing for Shelter

If you take time to think about shelter, it may be obvious that clothing is protection. Most people, however, think of it more as fashion, and expression of individualism, or even a screen for their modesty. Simply stated, in a world of climate-controlled environments, most people have lost touch with the reason that clothing was invented in the first place.

Footwear supports and protects your feet whether you are wearing a hiking boot to take on the local trails or sandals to cross the hot parking lot to throw out your trash. Though I can’t find a lot of practical use for a six-inch, strapless, stiletto-heel shoe, at least it serves as a protective layer from rough or sharp surfaces.

Similarly, pants and skirts, shirts and blouses serve to protect against brush, vines and bushes if you’re in the wild. Heavy working pants protect against rocks if you’re kneeling and the occasional brush against a barbed-wire fence if you’re out running in the field. More modern pants are adapted to our current environments and activities – some even of materials made to wick moisture away from your skin to help in cooling. Shirts are used for the same purpose as pants and loose, thin shirts are often used as protection from the sun.

Hats, gloves, heavy vests, bandanas, etc. all evolved to fulfill their little niche of the protection game. In fact, much of fashion evolved with these items. Gloves of thin material and hats without brims showed that one of significant enough social status that they didn’t need to be protected from the same dangers as those ‘beneath’ their social status. Some truly outrageous shoe designs that would obviously prevent using stirrups on a horse showed that a person was well-off enough that they could afford a carriage – and thus served to elevate themselves above even those well-off enough to be able to afford a horse for riding, but then subject to the dangers thereof.

Regardless of fashion considerations, clothing was almost certainly developed primarily as thermal protection. Initially when humans were exposed to the capriciousness of the wild, they layered on mud and vegetation, then animals skins and finally, textiles. Once they finally moved into caves and structures, the clothing changed to meet the new circumstances. That brings us to the final layer.

Structural Shelter

Finally, this is likely what most people think of if you say the word ‘shelter’. The words are synonymous now as it is likely that the first thing built was likely to provide protection. But the idea carries more with it than just buildings. Where clothing is something worn for protection, structures can be considered a location to go for shelter – even if you carry it with you like a sleeping bag.

Generally speaking there are two types of structure: natural and artificial.

Natural structures such as caves, rock overhangs, and trees provide some level of protection from weather. If caught in the wild, finding such a structure for shelter can literally be a life-saver. This type of structure, however, is usually temporary and most likely will have some deterring factor. Trees may not protect from the wind, rock overhangs may be in the path of rising water, and caves may be treacherous to reach or outside of convenient distance from a water source.

These deficiencies are why artificial structures were created. Light-weight, portable tents can be placed where they are needed and moved relatively easily. Sleeping bags provide thermal isolation to allow the user to stay comfortable through the night and thus awaken more refreshed. These items, however, still leave you somewhat exposed to predators. Thus the sturdy building that can keep out the elements and predators while providing a place to gather and keep safe items of importance has become the gold standard for shelter.

Conclusion

Just because a building is literally the go-to in shelter doesn’t mean we should cast off the other elements. Keep the basics with you: lip balm and a small tube of lotion. Dress appropriate for your environment and the activities you plan (including appropriate safety gear if relevant) – with consideration for what may go wrong. Taking just that little extra bit of precaution may make those unexpected hiccups be just a bit easier to weather and may help you get back to home where you can once again keep the world out.

Strategic Shortage Preparedness

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It looks like we’re heading to a new round of lock-downs across the country. Even in areas where lock downs are unlikely – such as states where they have sworn them off – there may be an impact. Just like when we have a headache, it makes it difficult to do other things, when one area of the country locks down or integrated supply chain makes it a virtual certainty that the impact will be felt nationally – even globally.

Pre-stock

With that in mind, this is a good time to make sure we have our supplies in order. Do you have your canned meats, your veggies, the items you like in your freezer, disinfecting wipes, toilet paper, and all the rest? If you don’t, consider getting what you need now.

There are three main reasons for pre-stocking:

  1. Ensure you have what you like. Even during the depth of the early-COVID shortages there was usually  substitute for what you like. If the store didn’t have your favorite green beans, then probably had – or shortly received – some green beans. But you have your preferences and during times of stress it is nice to have what you like and the products your familiar with.
  2. Maintain your safety. Regardless of whether you believe COVID is as a harmful as is being reported (we won’t be getting into that), by being able to avoid stores jam-packed with people who are desperately seeking what they need you can avoid the hassle and potential of infection.
  3. Allow others to get what they need. If you have what you need, you can not only avoid the need of being in the store, you can help ensure that those who have not stocked or who were unable to stock up can find what they need.

This last point is something that many seem to not only fail to consider, but actively work against. It is an important consideration though. By leaving something behind and not contributing to shortages, you actually help ensure that the supplies you spent your hard-earned resources on last longer.

Many people prepare not only for themselves, but to assist others who are less fortunate in emergency situations. If these people don’t need to deplete the shelves purchasing items during a shortage, then more people will be able to provide for themselves, thus reducing the need for the prepared to provide for others.

Shortage Plan

In this spirit, have a plan for shortages:

  • Prepare before the shortage. Know how long you want to be able to sustain yourself, develop inventory levels and maintain those levels when there is no shortage, then rotate through your stocks in normal times.
  • During a shortage, replace items as they are used, but don’t exceed your inventory levels. Remember not to completely deplete your items before seeking replacements. Since you’ll still have something in your inventory, make sure to leave something on the shelf for those who don’t. Never take the last item – allow your community to take care of itself.
  • Replenish your stocks from alternate sources. If the local stores are having difficulties maintain their shelves, order your restock from online sources, from stores that have higher stock levels, or with bartering with others in your preparedness community. There will be people who will need that last can of beans on the shelf for dinner tonight. Let them provide for themselves by sourcing your supplies away from where others will be gathering their immediate needs.
  • Prior to the shortage, determine what you have set aside for helping others. Ration these supplies so you can help those most in need. Once the shortage has started, do not replenish your donor supplies, especially from local stores as you will effectively be removing these supplies from circulation only to redistribute them.

By following these simple strategies, you can assist yourself, those close to you, and your community at large. Once the shortage resolves, be sure to replenish supplies strategically so you can be prepared in case the shortages return.

How Do I Stock Up?

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Getting Started

I was asked a variant of this question the other day, but it can take on many forms:

  • How do I start getting my pantry ready for uncertain times?
  • What food do I need to get?
  • What should I put aside?

They are all similar questions and the answer boils down to ‘it depends’. So let’s discuss some of the things it depends upon.

Considerations for Stocking Up

As in most things, your two top considerations are time and resources.

It is much easier to stock up if you start well before a period of uncertainty starts. The more time you give yourself, the more options you will have.

For instance, if you can grow a garden and can preserve the rewards of your harvest, you can stock up relatively inexpensively, but it is at a great cost in time.

On the other hand, if you’ve waited until the hard times begin, then you’ve given yourself no time to find good deals or alternative sources for necessary products or food. This will almost certainly mean that anything you can find will be higher priced and you may face an issue of limited to no availability – take the Great Toilet Paper Shortage of 2020 with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Even outside of international disasters, the more time you have to prepare the better your options will be. For instance, investing in a savings account – with compounding interest – when you’re young is much better than trying to squirrel away all you can save beginning five years before your retire.

So What do I Need?

It is difficult to tell you specifically what you need. What I can tell you is that you already know and you have a pretty good idea of how much you need.

You know what you and your family like to eat – and what you don’t like. So it would be useless for me to tell you to get 4 (or 400) cans of corn. If your family can’t stand corn that would be more wasteful than buying junk food or candy – because if you followed that advice, you wouldn’t have the resources for what you truly need.

The first step in determining what you need is to look at what you currently use.

If you eat canned corn, get canned corn. If you don’t know how to cook and normally buy frozen dinners, get frozen dinners (then learn to cook and start eating real food). If you need a good starting place, check out the Tools page on this site for exactly that kind of guidance.

Where you may run afoul is with protein. In the modern Western world, we eat a lot of protein – usually in the form of meat. If a meal just isn’t a meal without a chunk of animal on your plate (such as is the case for me), then stocking up on animal protein may be a little outside the norm.

Having meat in store-bought products (such as canned stews or chili) is one way to go about it, as is purchasing canned meat such as SPAM, corned beef, canned chicken and canned fish. Another avenue for those with the skills, or who are willing to learn the skills, is to home can meat. Purchasing meat from the grocer or butcher and taking it home to can means you do not need a freezer.

Where Do I Put it All?

Freezer space brings up another question, where do you store your food? Again, it depends on what you have.

Cool, dark places are best. Even canned food last longer in cool places than in warm or unregulated places.  If you have a basement, that is probably a good place to consider. For those without basements, a dedicated pantry would be nice, but is may already be filled with your daily-use items. So consider under the bed, on closet floors, or in dedicated storage cabinets specifically for your stored food.

Wherever you decide, make sure that it is accessible. You want to ensure that you can get to what you need and you also need to ensure that you can view it for inventory purposes so you know when you need to restock – or so that you don’t forget you already have twenty cans of pickled herrings and don’t need to get any more.

Let’s Look at Your Window

Once you know what you need and where you’re going to put it, and assuming you have time, with what you know and build.

Determine your window so you can determine your stock level. Your window is the amount of time that you want to accommodate. If you’re unsure – and especially if you are on a tight budget – start with a relatively small window – such as one week. That may seem very short, but the most recent study I could find (from 2012) related that approximately 53% of Americans do not have three-days worth of food in their homes. In other countries, where smaller refrigerators and daily trips to the local grocers are more the norm, it is likely even less. So for many people, a full week supply could be considered aspirational. If you already have a week, great for you, choose another time frame such as a month or three months. Build toward that goal as resources allow.

When you go to the grocery, get a little extra. It may be that you get the five-pound bag a shredded cheese and split it into smaller bags that you store in the freezer. Perhaps you get three cans of vegetables rather than just two – then set the extra to the side. Try to find the ‘extra’ items when they are on sale or have coupons so that you have more resources to continue your plans.

The trick is that the ‘extra’ you bought should not be consumed as a part of your regular diet. Remember you decided on a stock level, right? These extras go into stock. If you eat your two cans, go get two more cans (or three, if it supports your stock level) until you have reached your stock level. Then begin rotating.

What’s This with Rotating?

Rotating stock is the best way to make sure your pantry has the best, freshest food available at any given time. When you purchase items for stock, add them to the back of your shelves (/freezer/pantry). Use from the front, but replenish from the back.

When you use something from stock (which means you’ve already used your daily-use items), you replenish to get back to the stock level you determine earlier.

For example, let’s go back to that canned corn. Let’s say you keep two in your pantry have a stock level of six. Since you have two in daily-use, you will have four in storage. You use one from the pantry. You add that one can of corn to the grocery list and replenish. That new can goes to the back of storage and the one on the front of the shelf in storage goes to the back of the shelf in the pantry.

You’ve just successfully rotated your stock.

Is there More to It?

There is always more to it, but that doesn’t it has to be difficult. Food is just one item. What about your hygiene products (toothpaste, shampoo, paper towels, soap and yes, toilet paper)?

Are you on dietary restrictions? If so, make sure that what you are stocking accommodates those restrictions.

Do you take prescription medications? Try to find a way to develop a safe supply that you can fall back on if needed – always rotate prescriptions to ensure are taking the freshest possible medications.

Do you have fuel stored? I once lived in a small town where the single long-distance internet cable coming into town was damaged. Gas stations no longer had the ability to take payments and had to shut down. Having an extra 5 gallon can in the storage shed in the backyard, or making sure you never drop below a half tank (which is a variation on the stock level / rotation strategy) can make sure you’re able to get to work, or gat out of town if needed.

Wrapping it Up

In the end, it is more important to do something than nothing, as long as that ‘something’ is not a waste of resources (remembering that time is a resource). So whatever you choose to do is a good first step. Just keep taking those steps and you’ll soon find yourself well down the path to preparedness.

Coronavirus Preparedness

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[This message was originally sent by email 3/15/2020 to select group of friends and family – prior to the creation of this site.]

I definitely never thought I’d send three updates in a week, but since this is Sunday, I guess it is the beginning of a new week so we’re all good.
Let me start by stating definitively that I believe the average person in the US has little to worry about with the actual COVID-19 illness. We may  have something to worry about in the reactions of other people though. The media is always looking for eyeballs and there is nothing like an emergency to get people to watch TV. Politicians are looking to get reelected, so they are always looking to be seen ‘doing something’ even if it turns out not to be the right thing. Then there are those around us who simply take in what the media and politicians say and let it play upon the reactive, primitive portions of their brains rather than processing it with the more intellectual portion. When we get enough of that happening, issues arise.
Real quick, why do I say that the average person in the US has little to worry about? Here we go:

  • About half of those infected are from mainland China.
  • Over half of the deaths are from mainland China.
  • Italy is being held up as why we in the West should freak out but Italy had the oldest average population in Europe which leads us to
  • The average age of those who have died is 80 – yes, that is the average age, meaning the trend is that people well over 80 are heavily impacted in order to offset those under 80
  • Based on the last report I saw (on Friday), no one under 18 has perished from COVID-19
  • Many who have perished live in third-world conditions where easy access to over the counter medication and appropriate hygiene (soap, clean water) is not easily accessible
  • We have a high degree of awareness the illness is out there and are being advised to exercise extra precautions

Ok, so moving on. Part of the psychology of an emergency is that people recognize that there is something impacting them that they cannot control. To compensate they will often try to control some other aspect of their life – whether or not it really makes sense. I think this is a major contributor to the Great Toilet Paper Shortage of 2020. It is also part of the idiosyncrasies of people who have survived trauma.

Now that the toilet paper (disinfecting wipes, paper towels, bottled water, diapers, etc.) is virtually gone but the stress persists, I believe that those who feel they need to exercise control will move on to another item. Just guessing, but right now since gas has dropped to an affordable price, it would not surprise me if it was the next commodity to be hit. This may be offset by potential quarantines (if you can’t go anywhere you probably don’t need gas), but since this ‘syndrome’ is not necessarily logic-based, I still think there is a high likelihood that gas will be impacted. Also, a quarantine in one area can create a shortage in another – an indirect impact.

I suggest you fill your vehicle and don’t let it drop below half a tank before filling again – just so you know that you can continue to get to work or go shopping if you are not impacted by a quarantine. Note, I am not saying you should *stockpile* gas, only that you get enough that you are not inconvenienced if it is the next ‘comfort blanket’. (Some cities have ordinances concerning the amount of gas you can store and where you can store it and, generally speaking, ordinances are usually imposed because something tragic happened.)

I live in a small town, yet close to a major metro area. I try to do my normal work week purchases (gas and lunches) with cash – it helps with budgeting and reduces the possibility of identity theft. So I stopped by the bank where I normally make my withdrawals and it was out of cash in the ATM. I went by another close-by bank – in town – and it was also out of cash. Finally I went to a bank on the outskirts of town and it still had cash in the ATM. If you use cash in your normal daily transactions, please be aware that this could be another target for those seeking some control in their lives. So I suggest that you pull a reasonable amount of cash.
Finally, if we have a major quarantine initiated, there could be slight interruptions to the banking system. Banks require people to keep things running smoothly and minor irritations when a full workforce can be applied to the issue is one thing, but can turn into a major interruption when the workforce is isolated from their normal working conditions. If something like that happens, having a little cash in pocket for emergency expenses wouldn’t be a bad thing. Remember we’re part of a national and international community. Even if you are not directly impacted by a quarantine, you can be indirectly impacted.


So, happy Sunday all. We will get through this. A little preparedness can just make the difference between getting through and struggling through.