Tag: COVID

Year 2020+1

bvinson2 Comments

Hi there folks, I’m trying to get into a rhythm of posting but this one will fall outside of that rhythm. I wanted to get some thoughts out there to help keep you focused and potentially provide insight you may not have considered.

Here we are on the day before the presidential inauguration. Many are projecting that now that the year 2020 is behind us and the new president is coming in, things are going to get back to normal.

I hope this is the case. I hope that we are truly on the road to recovery as a nation and across the globe.

If we are truly recovering, enjoy it.

I encourage you to keep your preparedness and readiness goals in mind though. This is not to say that we should run around with our hair on fire (this is never the correct response). This just means that as you go about your life, remember that you started on the preparedness journey for a reason and that reason has likely not subsided.

The year 2020 was harsh, primarily for three reasons. Unfortunately there doesn’t seem to have been a lot of progress made.

COVID

The COVID-19 virus is still a concern globally. Though it is most impactful to a small segment of the global community, for those people it can be extremely devastating. It should be taken seriously, especially for those folks and those closest to them. Even for those of us who think it has been over-hyped, it should still be taken seriously. There is no reason not to follow the basic protocols social distancing, wearing a mask (unless you have a physical reason not to), and washing your hands.

 I was a social distancing earlier-adopter. I haven’t liked people within six feet of me most of my life.

Some are hailing the arrival of the vaccine. Please remember that this vaccine is not intended to make you immune to the virus or even to keep you from spreading the virus. It keeps you from having symptoms. This can protect tens of thousands of people as, for most people, it is the symptoms that kill. Just keep in mind that it is still out there and that you still need to follow appropriate protocols for your personal situation and the protection of those you care about.

Expect mask mandates, continued social distancing, and other restrictions while a vaccine is developed that will actually halt the spread rather than halt the symptoms. My concern is that the current vaccines will provide false hope and people will become lax in the other preventative measures, allowing the virus to spread more easily or mutate at a faster rate than it otherwise would.

The Economy

With the lockdowns, the economy is still struggling. Even once the lockdowns are lifted, there is going to be a significant period where things will still need to unwind.

People who worked at businesses that will not open again will need to find jobs. Since the labor market will likely be flooded and businesses will just be getting back on their own feet, those jobs will likely come with a cut in pay, reducing overall consumer spending – which accounts for the majority of spending in a healthy economy. It can recover, but it will take time – and it will only start once people are allowed to work again.

The stimulus packages will need to be repaid. If they are not repaid, well, let’s not even focus on that. They have to be repaid. Government loans (which when you hear about deficit spending, that means the government is taking out a loan directly or indirectly) are repaid in two ways: taxes and inflation.

Higher taxes takes money out of the workers’ pockets by reducing money they have to spend and is a direct means of revenue for the government. Inflation takes money out of the pockets of the savers by reducing the value of money in savings, and is an indirect method by making money gained today be more valuable than money gained yesterday. I would expect both methods will be used. The Federal Reserve is already talking about letting inflation rise and the new administration has promised to remove the tax breaks of the soon-to-be-previous administration.

Add these factors together and we are likely to see a recession, if not a depression, as we come out of the lockdowns. It doesn’t have to be scary if you’re prepared for it. Unfortunately it is very difficult to prepare for it in with short-term actions.

Though the incoming administration as promised an extension on the eviction moratorium, this is not a forgiveness of debt. Those who cannot pay now are accruing a debt they may never be able to pay back and thus will face eviction once the moratoriums are lifted. In the meanwhile real estate is becoming more costly. Land owners must still make payments and maintain their properties. As this continues, it should be expected that many will sell (even at discounted prices) to avoid overhead on properties where they are losing money. This will likely result in a significant reduction in overall wealth in the nation, wealth that could have otherwise been used to rebuild. If you have investments in real estate (other than you primary residence), you may want to devote some time to your financial strategy with an advisor you can trust.

Social Issues

There have been no great advances in social issues over the last 9-12 months. All the same tensions that fueled the civil unrest of the summer of 2020 are still out there. Some segments of society are even more tense than they had been and even more unrest is being fueled. We’re currently seeing that over 20,000 National Guard from all 50 states have been deployed to Washington, D.C. and many state capitols are protecting themselves as well. Things have not calmed down yet.

Be aware of your surroundings as you go about your daily life – don’t let these issues keep you from having a daily life. Look a little further down the road that usual (literally) to make sure there aren’t road closures or obstacles.

Pay attention to entrances and exits from buildings. Most people try to leave a building by the same way they entered even if it is impractical. Be aware of side exits and rear exists. If things go sideways, don’t let “Employees Only” bar you from leaving by a safe exit. Get out the loading dock of the grocery store if you need to. If the situation warrants it, I’d much rather be outside and griped out by an angry store manager than be trapped in a building because I didn’t want to violate social norms.

The fact of the matter is that until we can talk, debate, and negotiate an agreement our society is going to continue to be splintered. Right now that is not an option. The outliers on each side are not willing to talk. My concern is that as long as differences cannot be settled by reasoned debate, they will be settled outside of reasoned debate. Most people I know, myself included, do not want that. It seems to be the direction we’re being led though.

Again, don’t be scared. Preparedness is not about being scared; it is about preventing being scared. When you are down to your last meal, you’re scared for food. When you’re down to your last dollar, you’re scared for money. When you cannot escape an attack, you’re scared for your safety. Prepare for these things and then you can stay alert for situations that impact you, but you have the resources and planning so you don’t have to be scared.

So while the calendar has turned, this year may end up looking a lot like last year. So rather than being in 2021, we may be in 2020+1. Let’s hope we can get it together so that this is the last 2020 we have to suffer through. In the meantime, keep to your preparedness goals. This is not the time to slack off.

Strategic Shortage Preparedness

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It looks like we’re heading to a new round of lock-downs across the country. Even in areas where lock downs are unlikely – such as states where they have sworn them off – there may be an impact. Just like when we have a headache, it makes it difficult to do other things, when one area of the country locks down or integrated supply chain makes it a virtual certainty that the impact will be felt nationally – even globally.

Pre-stock

With that in mind, this is a good time to make sure we have our supplies in order. Do you have your canned meats, your veggies, the items you like in your freezer, disinfecting wipes, toilet paper, and all the rest? If you don’t, consider getting what you need now.

There are three main reasons for pre-stocking:

  1. Ensure you have what you like. Even during the depth of the early-COVID shortages there was usually  substitute for what you like. If the store didn’t have your favorite green beans, then probably had – or shortly received – some green beans. But you have your preferences and during times of stress it is nice to have what you like and the products your familiar with.
  2. Maintain your safety. Regardless of whether you believe COVID is as a harmful as is being reported (we won’t be getting into that), by being able to avoid stores jam-packed with people who are desperately seeking what they need you can avoid the hassle and potential of infection.
  3. Allow others to get what they need. If you have what you need, you can not only avoid the need of being in the store, you can help ensure that those who have not stocked or who were unable to stock up can find what they need.

This last point is something that many seem to not only fail to consider, but actively work against. It is an important consideration though. By leaving something behind and not contributing to shortages, you actually help ensure that the supplies you spent your hard-earned resources on last longer.

Many people prepare not only for themselves, but to assist others who are less fortunate in emergency situations. If these people don’t need to deplete the shelves purchasing items during a shortage, then more people will be able to provide for themselves, thus reducing the need for the prepared to provide for others.

Shortage Plan

In this spirit, have a plan for shortages:

  • Prepare before the shortage. Know how long you want to be able to sustain yourself, develop inventory levels and maintain those levels when there is no shortage, then rotate through your stocks in normal times.
  • During a shortage, replace items as they are used, but don’t exceed your inventory levels. Remember not to completely deplete your items before seeking replacements. Since you’ll still have something in your inventory, make sure to leave something on the shelf for those who don’t. Never take the last item – allow your community to take care of itself.
  • Replenish your stocks from alternate sources. If the local stores are having difficulties maintain their shelves, order your restock from online sources, from stores that have higher stock levels, or with bartering with others in your preparedness community. There will be people who will need that last can of beans on the shelf for dinner tonight. Let them provide for themselves by sourcing your supplies away from where others will be gathering their immediate needs.
  • Prior to the shortage, determine what you have set aside for helping others. Ration these supplies so you can help those most in need. Once the shortage has started, do not replenish your donor supplies, especially from local stores as you will effectively be removing these supplies from circulation only to redistribute them.

By following these simple strategies, you can assist yourself, those close to you, and your community at large. Once the shortage resolves, be sure to replenish supplies strategically so you can be prepared in case the shortages return.

Coronavirus Preparedness

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[This message was originally sent by email 3/15/2020 to select group of friends and family – prior to the creation of this site.]

I definitely never thought I’d send three updates in a week, but since this is Sunday, I guess it is the beginning of a new week so we’re all good.
Let me start by stating definitively that I believe the average person in the US has little to worry about with the actual COVID-19 illness. We may  have something to worry about in the reactions of other people though. The media is always looking for eyeballs and there is nothing like an emergency to get people to watch TV. Politicians are looking to get reelected, so they are always looking to be seen ‘doing something’ even if it turns out not to be the right thing. Then there are those around us who simply take in what the media and politicians say and let it play upon the reactive, primitive portions of their brains rather than processing it with the more intellectual portion. When we get enough of that happening, issues arise.
Real quick, why do I say that the average person in the US has little to worry about? Here we go:

  • About half of those infected are from mainland China.
  • Over half of the deaths are from mainland China.
  • Italy is being held up as why we in the West should freak out but Italy had the oldest average population in Europe which leads us to
  • The average age of those who have died is 80 – yes, that is the average age, meaning the trend is that people well over 80 are heavily impacted in order to offset those under 80
  • Based on the last report I saw (on Friday), no one under 18 has perished from COVID-19
  • Many who have perished live in third-world conditions where easy access to over the counter medication and appropriate hygiene (soap, clean water) is not easily accessible
  • We have a high degree of awareness the illness is out there and are being advised to exercise extra precautions

Ok, so moving on. Part of the psychology of an emergency is that people recognize that there is something impacting them that they cannot control. To compensate they will often try to control some other aspect of their life – whether or not it really makes sense. I think this is a major contributor to the Great Toilet Paper Shortage of 2020. It is also part of the idiosyncrasies of people who have survived trauma.

Now that the toilet paper (disinfecting wipes, paper towels, bottled water, diapers, etc.) is virtually gone but the stress persists, I believe that those who feel they need to exercise control will move on to another item. Just guessing, but right now since gas has dropped to an affordable price, it would not surprise me if it was the next commodity to be hit. This may be offset by potential quarantines (if you can’t go anywhere you probably don’t need gas), but since this ‘syndrome’ is not necessarily logic-based, I still think there is a high likelihood that gas will be impacted. Also, a quarantine in one area can create a shortage in another – an indirect impact.

I suggest you fill your vehicle and don’t let it drop below half a tank before filling again – just so you know that you can continue to get to work or go shopping if you are not impacted by a quarantine. Note, I am not saying you should *stockpile* gas, only that you get enough that you are not inconvenienced if it is the next ‘comfort blanket’. (Some cities have ordinances concerning the amount of gas you can store and where you can store it and, generally speaking, ordinances are usually imposed because something tragic happened.)

I live in a small town, yet close to a major metro area. I try to do my normal work week purchases (gas and lunches) with cash – it helps with budgeting and reduces the possibility of identity theft. So I stopped by the bank where I normally make my withdrawals and it was out of cash in the ATM. I went by another close-by bank – in town – and it was also out of cash. Finally I went to a bank on the outskirts of town and it still had cash in the ATM. If you use cash in your normal daily transactions, please be aware that this could be another target for those seeking some control in their lives. So I suggest that you pull a reasonable amount of cash.
Finally, if we have a major quarantine initiated, there could be slight interruptions to the banking system. Banks require people to keep things running smoothly and minor irritations when a full workforce can be applied to the issue is one thing, but can turn into a major interruption when the workforce is isolated from their normal working conditions. If something like that happens, having a little cash in pocket for emergency expenses wouldn’t be a bad thing. Remember we’re part of a national and international community. Even if you are not directly impacted by a quarantine, you can be indirectly impacted.


So, happy Sunday all. We will get through this. A little preparedness can just make the difference between getting through and struggling through.