Author: bvinson

Dockworker’s Strike – Potential Impacts

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With possible dockworkers’ strikes affecting East Coast & Gulf Coast ports, essential imports could face delays. This is definitely not a time to panic, but it may be a good time to check if you are prepared on key items. Here’s how you can prepare and ensure your family’s needs are met in case of disruptions to life-sustaining goods:

Stock Up On These Essentials:

  1. Baby Formula: Supply could be impacted. If you rely on formula, consider purchasing extra.
  2. Medications: Refill prescriptions early, especially for critical medications like insulin, antibiotics, and any medical devices or supplies you depend on.
  3. Non-Perishable Foods: Stock up on rice, canned goods, grains, and cooking oil to cover any potential shortages in fresh imports.
  4. Fertilizers & Gardening Supplies: If you’re growing food at home, consider securing fertilizers or garden inputs early.
  5. Fuel & Energy Essentials: Keep vehicles fueled and stock up on heating oil or propane if you rely on it for home heating.
  6. Pet Supplies: If you have pets, ensure you have enough pet food, medications, and other essentials.

What You Can Do:

  • Plan Ahead: Make a list of your critical needs and buy what’s reasonable without overextending yourself financially.
  • Stay Informed: Follow local news for updates on the strike and its impact on supply chains.
  • Support Local: If possible, buy from local farmers, markets, and producers to reduce dependency on imported goods.
  • Share Resources: Consider sharing tips and resources with friends and family, especially those with infants or medical needs.

Constitutional Carry – Calendars Committee

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Well, the legislative process is slow and painful, but movement is happening. Two bills are moving forward. Now that they have gotten through the Homeland Security and Public Safety, the House Calendars Committee must post them for a floor discussion and vote, or they will die at this stage.

More info here and how you can contribute to the next step:
https://texas.gunowners.org/constitutional-carry-next-steps/

Once again, do what you feel is right, but I am contacting my elected officials in support of moving forward.

Break it Down

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This is the Thursday post, so it will focus on Emergency Planning. Since it is planning, that means there is an underlying process and it will build on the ‘homework’ from last week. If you haven’t read that one, you may want to take a look at the previous post, It’s Not a Movie, Folks.

In that post you were asked to identify those things you rely upon the most. You may have had trouble coming up with multiple items or you may have been able to fill a notebook. You don’t have to do them all at once. It is definitely an iterative process and you can come back to this exercise as you become aware of new items. It does, however, work best if you have at least three items.

Just as a quick note, I have been studying and working in and around this field for decades. I have gone through a lot of material including books, training, videos, white papers and blog posts. If you go through similar materials you will probably find what I did – most is overly complex and it is quite boring to read. I’m trying to condense these materials to something more friendly to use and convey it in a manner that is easier to use. For those reasons I will be violating a lot of the ‘rules’. So, if you are looking to get a certification in emergency planning (as I have) this may not be the place to start. However, if you are looking to actually be proficient in emergency planning for small groups (such as families, small business, or similar groups) then this should serve you well.

Beginning the Work

  • Break threats down into manageable pieces (decomposition)
  • Understand the threats you may face
  • The basic response techniques
  • Understanding the cascading impacts of threats
  • How to gather the information necessary to make good planning decisions

Now we’re about to get into the real nuts and bolts of moving forward into a more prepared state. Before we can do this, we need to make sure that when we use certain words, we have a common understanding of the meaning. It is especially important for me to know that you understand what I mean. Even more important, however, will be when you have discussions within your group. If you have a common understanding of the terms, you’ll save a lot of time in backtracking, misunderstanding and clarifying.

Future discussions hinge on what we discuss next. It is a very simple concept, but I want to call special attention it so that you really take the time to let it soak in. Reread it if necessary, even post a comment if you need more information to understand it and I’ll reply for the benefit of all.

Moving forward, our discussion is going to be framed by a strategy called ‘decomposition’. It’s a fancy word that means ‘to break things down’. That is exactly what we’re going to do.

Decomposition

For major events, there may be too many factors to consider initially and that may lead to confusion, delay or discouragement with the preparedness process. For instance, trying to prepare for a hurricane is too much to ask. You can’t ‘prepare for a hurricane’. However, with a hurricane there are winds, flood waters, electrical service disruptions, fuel supply disruptions, food supply disruptions, etc. These you can start to understand and the task of taking action begins to come into focus.

That’s a capsule of decomposition. Rather than considering a major event as one item and trying to determine what you’d need in that event, try decomposing it – breaking it down to its component pieces. This will have additional advantages when we start building our plan as well.

So let’s look at that hurricane and some of the decomposed threats we may face.

Event: Hurricane

  • Wind
    • Roads blocked
    • Electrical Outage
      • Food spoilage
      • Municipal water unavailable (pumps are out)
      • No lighting
      • No access to news updates
    • Structural damage
      • Roof damage
      • Siding damage
  • Flooding
    • Roads blocked
    • Water contaminated
    • Structural damage
      • Moved on foundation
      • Flooded lower floors / basement
  • Supply chain interruption
    • Fuel inaccessible
      • Automotive
      • Fuel oil
    • Food limited

You can see how this process of decomposition sheds a little more light on exactly the problems you may face for each major threat. This better illuminates what you’re going to need in order to deal with that threat. It also allows you to look at the threat in ‘bite-sized’ pieces so that they don’t appear as overwhelming. Remember the old joke:

                Q: How do you eat an elephant?

                A: One bite at a time.

I said it was a joke, not that it was funny. It does illustrate the concept though. You have to break big issues down into things that you can wrap your head around. Until you do that, the whole idea of preparedness can be daunting and it would be all too easy to revert back to the apocalyptic view and say that there is just nothing that we can do.

Decomposing Decomposition

Be cautious in your decomposition. In project management we talk about a work breakdown structure (WBS) whereby we take the project and decompose it into individual ‘work packages’. This level is where time and cost can most accurately be determined without being overly burdensome. Though the time to complete each of these work packages may vary, it is something you can think about as a distinct ‘piece of work’. Generally, this means a work process that takes at least an hour, but less than a week.

Once you can break it down to this level, it is best to resist breaking it down further. I mean, where would you stop if you just kept breaking it down more and more? Eventually you’d be talking about preparing for hurricane wind speeds of 115 miles per hour versus 120 miles per hour. They’re both Category 3 hurricanes, so the preparations would be the same. Once you’re down to a manageable level, stop.

Let’s use this opportunity to develop some of that common vocabulary I was mentioning. This will help make sure that we’re using the same words to discuss the same concept and dispel some possible confusion. For our purposes, I propose a four-tier structure. The top tier is what I’ll call an Event – such as a hurricane, a wildfire, civil unrest, or flood. The event is a category heading, not much else – just a stepping off point for our mental work.

We’re about to get into one of those situations where professional emergency planners are going to have their heads explode. I’m changing some definitions from the standard texts and this will make it difficult for them to support. Being accepted by the professional emergency planning community doesn’t matter as much to me as helping you meet your individual needs. It just happens that there really are a limited number of words in the English language and so I will use the ones that work for us. Just know that if you speak with an Emergency Planner, they may use the words a little differently.

Threats

The next step down from an Event is a Threat. Threats are the various adverse conditions that may arise from a particular Event. The reason people are worried about threats is because of the risks they present. Each threat has at least one risk.

To help in communicating with professionals in the field, please understand that the FEMA framework breaks this concept out into two components: Threats and Hazards. In the FEMA model, a Threat is human-caused (i.e., hacking or arson) and a Hazard is naturally occurring (i.e., tornadoes or wild fires). Since this distinction is pretty much of no use for our purposes, we will use the term Threat more generically to apply to both. For most emergency planning there is no corollary for an Event. For me, however, it helps to group things together in this manner for organizational purposes.

Risks

Finally, a Risk is the unfavorable outcome of a threat. When people talk about something happening, risks are the true points of concern. People might say they are worried about a flood (the Event), or the water rising (the Threat). They really aren’t. They are worried about their house being damaged or being washed downstream (the Risk). When you strip away everything else, this is what we’re really trying to deal with. If not for the risk, we wouldn’t worry about this whole idea of preparedness at all. There wouldn’t be a need. Superman doesn’t practice emergency preparedness because there is nothing from earth that poses a risk to him (don’t get me started on Kryponite).

With these definitions, we end up with this structure:

Event:

  • Threat
    • Risk

Of course, you may be ahead of the game and already have all kinds of individual risks figured out. That’s great, don’t lose sight of them. Instead of working from the top down, you can work from the bottom up. Determine which risks are due to which threat and then which event could cause that threat. You may be tempted to just write down the risks and move forward. This leads to a very fragmented approach – especially in a group setting.

Sticking to this structure helps everyone involved understand how the response is going to work and why you’re doing exactly what you’re doing. This structure is as much about communication as it is about preparedness. It even helps to serve as a reminder for you after you’ve stepped away from this process and are looking back at the results. So stick with the structure; it’s to everyone’s benefit.

Let me wrap up this introduction to decomposition by saying that it does not matter if my decomposition and your group’s decomposition matches exactly. We live in different areas, have different life experiences and different tolerances. That’s fine too. What matters is that your group understands the logic and the breakdown.

Since similar threats can develop from different events, the event itself is almost a non-issue for us. Events are a mental placeholder – a stepping off point for the process. For this reason, it doesn’t really matter what event causes the threat. For that reason, the real work begins at the threat level, so that’s where we’ll start our work.

Now your homework for this week is to take the ideas you generated (and any new ones) and apply them to the structure. Are they events, threats, or risks? List them out in the three-tiered structure. I bet you’ll find that you’ll begin to see new risks for your threats and new threats for your events. You’ll also identify new threats for your risks. That’s fine; document it. Even better, work with someone in your group to come up with even more ideas. You’re very likely to inspire and take inspiration from your partner and that will just help develop the final plan.

The Basics: Medical

bvinson1 Comment

Perhaps no other aspect of personal readiness is more misunderstood than medical preparedness. Many of us have access to the supplies we need, but it is often the knowledge and mindset that is missing. On top of that, there is more to medical preparedness than treating wounds. Much more.

First, the disclaimer. I am trained in first aid and other minor medical procedures. I used to teach a wide variety of health and safety courses for the American Red Cross and for my own company and I’ve stayed up on this knowledge. I am considered a ‘knowledgeable person’ by the legal definition and, therefore, able to teach minor medical treatments. I am not, however, a ‘trained medical professional’, doctor, nurse, or professional healthcare provider. I do not give professional medical advice. Therefore, this post and all others by me or by non-medical professionals on this site are for information and educational purposes only. You should speak to your trusted healthcare professional for medical advice.

Mindset

As with most preparedness activities, the most important thing is approaching it with the correct mindset. We must be mentally ready to do what needs to be done.

Back in my 20’s I had a girlfriend whose sister was determined to be an Emergency Medical Technician. She loved the aspect of community service and helping people out, especially those who were having what was likely the worst day of their lives. She went to school to learn everything she needed to know and get her certification. Since she was paying her own way, it took a couple of years and in the gaps between class time, she did everything she could to learn more, stay fresh on her knowledge, and even learn the business side of ambulance services.

Finally she completed the schooling and went on her first ride-along with an ambulance. On that first evening, she went to a call for a victim with a gunshot wound.  The amount of blood, level of trauma, and sounds of suffering from the victim were more than she could stand. They got the victim to the hospital, but she found that she was unable to make herself get back in the ambulance. She was too traumatized.

Despite all of her desire and training and preparation, she could not deal with the trauma and never returned to finish her certification. Her mindset failed her.

Don’t get me wrong, people are built differently and I’m not passing judgment on whether her reaction was right or wrong. I’m just saying that she did not have the mindset that allowed her to fulfill her goal.

Make sure that you have the correct mindset to achieve your goals, or that you have a resource who has the mindset as well as the skills needed.

Preventative Medicine

One of the most overlooked portions of medical preparedness for emergency situations is to make sure that you are in the best health possible before the emergency situation.

Proper fitness levels can prevent or delay injuries when your body is called upon to do something outside the norm. If you are in good cardiovascular health, have muscles accustomed to being worked, tendons and ligaments used to be flexed, then you are much less likely to suffer from sprains, strains, and pulls when you’re called into unusual action.

Beyond the normal day-to-day activities you do, ensure that you are getting proper medical advice. Go see your trusted medical professional at least annually to make sure that everything is still good. Heart health issues such as high blood pressure and endocrinological conditions such as diabetes can creep up so slowly that we can be unaware of their onset. According to Mount Sinai Medical Center, those under 30 should get a checkup every two to three years. People between 30 and 40 should get a checkup annually. If you’re over 50, the annual is a must and you’ll likely need additional testing or monitoring if indicators of common health conditions are present. Between 40 and 50, no specific guidance is given, but the annual physical examination is a good idea.

The American Dental Association is a bit less helpful in their recommendations in their statement, ” To maintain optimal oral health, the American Dental Association (ADA) recommends regular dental visits, at intervals determined by a dentist.” If you read a bit further it seems that they recommend a checkup and cleaning at least annually and your dentist may recommend more frequent visits if you are considered high-risk patient. As someone who had a tooth break during Thanksgiving dinner one year (American Thanksgiving is on Thursday for our international readers), when no dentist was available immediately, most were closed the next day and following weekend, I can say that a broken tooth only complicates normal life. I would never want to experience an emergency situation with a broken tooth added on. Get those chompers checked and brush according to your dentist’s recommendation.

The final component of preventative care is diet and nutrition. Ensuring proper nutrition serves as the foundation for the other items. Eating right gives your body the resources necessary to stay fit. A balanced diet ensures that you have the right combination of macronutrients and micronutrients to allow your body to maintain your musculoskeletal structure, and fight infections. Lower acid foods means less wear on your teeth and crunchy foods help strengthen the muscles and ligaments holding your teeth in place. All of this works together help maintain that base level of health that you may have to rely on in an emergency situation.

These three preventative care considerations should help greatly and may actually prevent the onset of an emergency situation. It is an unfortunate fact of life that we don’t know each instance of when something didn’t go wrong. We only know when it did go wrong. Staying healthy should assist in keeping that count low.

First Aid and Trauma Training

This aspect of medical preparedness is what receives most of the attention in preparedness circles. It is important, so we’ll spend some time on it. However, we just can’t go into enough detail in this format to provide training for those who need it and retain interest for those who don’t. So make sure you do follow up with appropriate training.

Strangely, though the Red Cross is considered the premiere agency for delivering First Aid training, they don’t really pause to define first aid. So we’ll go to Wikipedia where it is defined as, “the first and immediate assistance given to any person suffering from either a minor or serious illness or injury, with care provided to preserve life, prevent the condition from worsening, or to promote recovery.”

The United States has a set of laws commonly referred to as the Good Samaritan laws which endeavor to hold harmless those who provide first aid as long as they are not exceeding their level of training and basically do no intentional harm. If the person being treated is conscious, some states require you ask their permission before rendering aid (be aware of your local laws). Those unconscious are generally considered to have given implicit consent. With these stipulations, you can see it is a good idea to take training so you can prove your level of training should it be required as well as potentially understand other legal ramifications of providing treatment.

Certain professions have a duty to render aid with their own laws, regulations and rules. Such discussions are far outside the scope of this article.

The next item to understand is that there is a difference between first aid and trauma treatment. General cuts, scrapes, strains, stresses and even breaks can be treated through first aid. Trauma treatment is often outside the skills of first aid providers and the most those trained in first aid can do for a trauma victim is to attempt to stabilize the person and wait for advanced medical providers to arrive.

In this context trauma is considered major injuries, often with severe blood loss such as from car wrecks, gunshot wounds, or violent attack. In modern, developed nations most people will never see a trauma victim first hand. Those in the military or law enforcement, high-danger jobs, or closely associated with criminal activity will have a higher likelihood of such encounters and may benefit from such training.

Many classes will also teach you ‘expedient’ tricks and techniques you can use if proper equipment is not available. This is good to know, but relying on them is like relying on flint and steel to start a fire to stay warm when you can turn on the heater in your house. To continue the analogy, make sure your ‘heater is working’ by collecting the proper equipment.

Equipment and Medications

There are first aid kits available in a wide variety of styles and contents that will help facilitate such treatments. The costs and contents fluctuate widely. A personal recommendation is that you buy a decent basic kit that has most of what you need and then augment it with additional supplies purchased individually. For instance, many first aid kits will only have a small number of adhesive bandages (and they will often be of low quality). If that kit has a good selection of other items, go ahead and get it and then add adhesive bandages from a box purchased separately so you have enough to meet your needs. Most mass-produced first aid kits don’t come with the very useful triangular bandage. Trying to find a kit with the triangular bandage can be frustrating and expensive. Again, get the basic kit and add this extra item.

Large kits can be kept at the house, where most accidents happen, medium sized kits can be stored in your vehicle, and small kits designed specifically for the activity you’re undertaking can be stored in your office desk or even carried in a backpack or purse.

This idea of activity-based kits is important. There will, of course, be commonly shared items such as adhesive bandages and over-the-counter pain killers. But if you’re going on a hike, adding a mole skin to prevent blisters would be advisable. If you’re going for a night on the town, hand sanitizer may be more helpful. Change the contents of your small kit to fit your needs. By combining small numbers of the ‘extra’ contents you bought to supplement your main kit, you may be able to stock your small kits from existing supplies.

The way to know what these needs are involves planning – which happens to be the subject of the Thursday posts, so make sure you’re checking back for those – or go ahead and subscribe below to be notified of updates.

For most in the medical or trauma professions, first aid kits are considered ‘boo boo kits’. Most will not come with the items necessary to treat severe trauma. The main purpose of a trauma kit is to stop major bleeds. Usually they include pressure bandages, seals for sucking chest wounds, blood clotting dressings and a tourniquet. The user should receive specific training on the use of each of these items as the misuse could result in no assistance being provided or even further injury. Seek out appropriate training for this equipment.

Now that covers some of the ‘sexy’ equipment that can be used, but there are more mundane items which are more commonly used and need just as much – and perhaps more – attention.

So many people need medical equipment these days and that medical equipment relies on electricity. Electricity should, therefore, be considered a medical necessity for these folks. Whether you need an oxygen generator for breathing issues while awake, or a CPAP machine while asleep, you need electricity to keep your devices working. Your first step should be to ensure you have a battery backup for your life-saving equipment. Your next step should be to ensure you have a method to recharge the device or a plan to get to a location where you have access to electricity. If you are reliant on any other medical device for your day-to-day health, ensure that you can keep it operational at least long enough for you to get somewhere else.

Similarly, many people are reliant on life-sustaining medications. One issue that many have is that they are also reliant on the insurance industry to purchase these medications. Insurance companies are notorious for not allowing over-purchasing. So it is difficult to have a supply of these medications for emergency needs.

It is important to follow applicable laws and not falsely report anything to insurance companies, but one method that I have seen that works well for accumulating an emergency supply is fairly simple but takes a while to generate a substantial ‘excess’. Most insurance companies will pay for your next refill about seven days before your current prescription runs out. If you stay on top of it then, you can refill your 30-day prescription every 23 days. That adds a week of ‘additional’ medication every month. If the dates fall correctly, you could potentially have 12 weeks of ‘extra’ medicine by just staying on top of your refills.

I’m not a doctor or a lawyer, but I do know that it is a violation of federal law to take a medication in a manner inconsistent with product labeling. Most (if not all) medications come with a disclaimer discard by a certain date – usually a year after purchase. It may, therefore, be illegal to take medication that is more than a year old. I’m not telling you what to do or not to do, just bringing this to your awareness.

Conclusion

There it is, a thought project on medical preparedness. The general summary is stay fit, eat well and get checked out regularly. Have the skills and equipment you need to help yourself and others. If you can do that, you are many strides ahead of virtually everyone you encounter on a daily basis – which means you are a leader in medical preparedness. Encourage others to become leaders as well so maybe they’ll be there for you should you need it as you would be there for them.

It’s Not a Movie, Folks

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Since I was a preteen I’ve enjoyed playing role-playing games. These games are where you take on the role of a fictional character and control that character’s actions in a fictional environment. It really is group storytelling where everyone (hopefully) participates to make an interesting  group event. There is also one person who directs the story and plays the parts of everyone not directly controlled by one of the other players.

Some days go better than others and there are occasions where the players just kind of bog down with and stop doing anything interesting. Everyone just kind of takes a pause and the game enters a lull. When I’m playing as the ‘director’ (Dungeon Master, Guide, etc.) and things hit that lull, I remind the other players, “It’s not a movie, folks”. They are responsible for taking the actions that drive the narrative forward.

This is About You

Let me now say it to you: This is not a movie. You are responsible to take action for your own planning and preparedness.

No one is as familiar with your needs and resources as you are. While others can come in and provide guidance, you must be the driving force for yourself and your family or group.

  • Who else knows better your dietary restrictions?
  • Who else knows better your risk tolerance?
  • Who knows the skills you have at your disposal?
  • Who knows your attachment to certain items or locations?
  • Who knows the resources at your disposal and what trade-offs you’re willing to make?
  • Truly no one else is as dedicated to your health and well being than you should be.

This is where most ‘preparedness’ or even ‘survival’ guides lose their way. They can only speak in generalities, but each person’s situation is unique and it needs a plan that is just as unique.

Taking Your First Step

While that general approach is a good place to start, to be something truly effective, you need to blaze your own trail.

Even before that, however, the first step must be to make the decision that planning and preparedness are necessary. If you can take an unbiased look at the world around us right now you’ll probably see that humanity is at the highest, most prosperous state that it has ever been in. You’ll also see that in many ways, we are on the edge and a fall from this height is dangerous. The thoughts of, ‘we’re doing better than ever in history’ and ‘we’re in danger of collapse’ can be held at the same time without one diminishing the other.

Since you have gotten to this site and made it this far through this post, I’m going to assume that you have made the decision to at least start thinking about taking positive steps toward your own personal preparedness.

Taking the Next Steps

With that being the case, please check back here. Better yet, subscribe to the posts and get a notification when the posts are updated. My effort will be focused on having two posts per week. The Monday post will pertain mostly to Personal Readiness – the operational side of things where preparedness tactics are discussed. The Thursday post will be more focused on Emergency Planning – the strategic, long-range side.

In the meantime, your homework is to begin (or if you have already begun, then use a more critical eye) to evaluate your situation. Identify those things which you rely on the most (your job, your car, your garden, whatever). That’s it. Just identify those things. With the next Thursday post we’ll begin with the planning.

Remember, it’s not a movie. No one is going to play this out for you. Your results will depend on your actions.

Year 2020+1

bvinson2 Comments

Hi there folks, I’m trying to get into a rhythm of posting but this one will fall outside of that rhythm. I wanted to get some thoughts out there to help keep you focused and potentially provide insight you may not have considered.

Here we are on the day before the presidential inauguration. Many are projecting that now that the year 2020 is behind us and the new president is coming in, things are going to get back to normal.

I hope this is the case. I hope that we are truly on the road to recovery as a nation and across the globe.

If we are truly recovering, enjoy it.

I encourage you to keep your preparedness and readiness goals in mind though. This is not to say that we should run around with our hair on fire (this is never the correct response). This just means that as you go about your life, remember that you started on the preparedness journey for a reason and that reason has likely not subsided.

The year 2020 was harsh, primarily for three reasons. Unfortunately there doesn’t seem to have been a lot of progress made.

COVID

The COVID-19 virus is still a concern globally. Though it is most impactful to a small segment of the global community, for those people it can be extremely devastating. It should be taken seriously, especially for those folks and those closest to them. Even for those of us who think it has been over-hyped, it should still be taken seriously. There is no reason not to follow the basic protocols social distancing, wearing a mask (unless you have a physical reason not to), and washing your hands.

 I was a social distancing earlier-adopter. I haven’t liked people within six feet of me most of my life.

Some are hailing the arrival of the vaccine. Please remember that this vaccine is not intended to make you immune to the virus or even to keep you from spreading the virus. It keeps you from having symptoms. This can protect tens of thousands of people as, for most people, it is the symptoms that kill. Just keep in mind that it is still out there and that you still need to follow appropriate protocols for your personal situation and the protection of those you care about.

Expect mask mandates, continued social distancing, and other restrictions while a vaccine is developed that will actually halt the spread rather than halt the symptoms. My concern is that the current vaccines will provide false hope and people will become lax in the other preventative measures, allowing the virus to spread more easily or mutate at a faster rate than it otherwise would.

The Economy

With the lockdowns, the economy is still struggling. Even once the lockdowns are lifted, there is going to be a significant period where things will still need to unwind.

People who worked at businesses that will not open again will need to find jobs. Since the labor market will likely be flooded and businesses will just be getting back on their own feet, those jobs will likely come with a cut in pay, reducing overall consumer spending – which accounts for the majority of spending in a healthy economy. It can recover, but it will take time – and it will only start once people are allowed to work again.

The stimulus packages will need to be repaid. If they are not repaid, well, let’s not even focus on that. They have to be repaid. Government loans (which when you hear about deficit spending, that means the government is taking out a loan directly or indirectly) are repaid in two ways: taxes and inflation.

Higher taxes takes money out of the workers’ pockets by reducing money they have to spend and is a direct means of revenue for the government. Inflation takes money out of the pockets of the savers by reducing the value of money in savings, and is an indirect method by making money gained today be more valuable than money gained yesterday. I would expect both methods will be used. The Federal Reserve is already talking about letting inflation rise and the new administration has promised to remove the tax breaks of the soon-to-be-previous administration.

Add these factors together and we are likely to see a recession, if not a depression, as we come out of the lockdowns. It doesn’t have to be scary if you’re prepared for it. Unfortunately it is very difficult to prepare for it in with short-term actions.

Though the incoming administration as promised an extension on the eviction moratorium, this is not a forgiveness of debt. Those who cannot pay now are accruing a debt they may never be able to pay back and thus will face eviction once the moratoriums are lifted. In the meanwhile real estate is becoming more costly. Land owners must still make payments and maintain their properties. As this continues, it should be expected that many will sell (even at discounted prices) to avoid overhead on properties where they are losing money. This will likely result in a significant reduction in overall wealth in the nation, wealth that could have otherwise been used to rebuild. If you have investments in real estate (other than you primary residence), you may want to devote some time to your financial strategy with an advisor you can trust.

Social Issues

There have been no great advances in social issues over the last 9-12 months. All the same tensions that fueled the civil unrest of the summer of 2020 are still out there. Some segments of society are even more tense than they had been and even more unrest is being fueled. We’re currently seeing that over 20,000 National Guard from all 50 states have been deployed to Washington, D.C. and many state capitols are protecting themselves as well. Things have not calmed down yet.

Be aware of your surroundings as you go about your daily life – don’t let these issues keep you from having a daily life. Look a little further down the road that usual (literally) to make sure there aren’t road closures or obstacles.

Pay attention to entrances and exits from buildings. Most people try to leave a building by the same way they entered even if it is impractical. Be aware of side exits and rear exists. If things go sideways, don’t let “Employees Only” bar you from leaving by a safe exit. Get out the loading dock of the grocery store if you need to. If the situation warrants it, I’d much rather be outside and griped out by an angry store manager than be trapped in a building because I didn’t want to violate social norms.

The fact of the matter is that until we can talk, debate, and negotiate an agreement our society is going to continue to be splintered. Right now that is not an option. The outliers on each side are not willing to talk. My concern is that as long as differences cannot be settled by reasoned debate, they will be settled outside of reasoned debate. Most people I know, myself included, do not want that. It seems to be the direction we’re being led though.

Again, don’t be scared. Preparedness is not about being scared; it is about preventing being scared. When you are down to your last meal, you’re scared for food. When you’re down to your last dollar, you’re scared for money. When you cannot escape an attack, you’re scared for your safety. Prepare for these things and then you can stay alert for situations that impact you, but you have the resources and planning so you don’t have to be scared.

So while the calendar has turned, this year may end up looking a lot like last year. So rather than being in 2021, we may be in 2020+1. Let’s hope we can get it together so that this is the last 2020 we have to suffer through. In the meantime, keep to your preparedness goals. This is not the time to slack off.

The Basics: Shelter

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Though we all use it daily, shelter is one of the most misunderstood basics of personal preparedness. Let’s take a quick look at essential shelter ideas and how to make sure that we are doing what we need to do.

So Really, What is Shelter?

In the grand scheme, shelter is what protects you from the outside world. At this fundamental level, your skin could even be part of your shelter. Working out from there, obviously you have your clothing, protective gear (gloves, HAZMAT suits, goggles, etc.). Sleeping bags or blankets could also be considered shelter. Next we go to the more traditional thinking on shelter such as tarps, tents, houses, buildings and the like. In extreme circumstances, a shade tree or a snow cave could also be a form of shelter.

There is a common ‘survival’ adage called the Rule of 3’s that goes something like: you can survive 3 seconds in hostile conditions, 3 minutes without air, 3 days without water and 3 weeks without food. That’s a very general statement, but it is easy to remember and helps prioritize your needs. Of course the 3 seconds of hostile conditions assumes VERY hostile conditions such as, perhaps, hot lead screaming in your direction at over 900 feet per second. Regardless, thinking about it in terms of ‘shelter is really important’ we have a starting place from which to explore.

Breaking shelter into three different groups may help:

  • Biological
  • Clothing
  • Structural

Biological Shelter

Your biological shelter is literally the skin you’re in. It is the largest organ on your body and serves to keep ‘you’ separate from ‘not you’. As such, it needs to be in good condition and appropriate condition for your expected activities.

A primary goal in personal preparedness should be making sure that your first line of protection doesn’t get holes in it. Avoid cutting yourself. Cuts can provide an avenue for infection. Take active measures to reduce the likelihood of blisters – which can be extremely painful and, if ruptured, can also be a vector for infection. By this point, other skin penetrations such as being stabbed by a tree branch or knife or other even more violent penetrations of the skin should be seen as something to be avoided as well.

Other, lesser considered issues include chapped hands and lips, over dried out skin or overly saturated skin and sunburn. All of these conditions serve to reduce the protective value of your skin. Take protective action by using lip balm, moisturizing lotion and sun screen. Some may balk at the idea of using lotion. That’s fine. If you are in a prolonged situation where your hands start developing calluses, that is your body forming it own protection and will assist you. Until then, especially if you don’t have excess of experience in the outdoors, lotion will help preserve your skin’s elasticity and moisture in emergency situations. Diet and nutrition also assist in maintaining proper skin health.

Of course the primary way most people take care of their skin is by moving up the scale to the next layer of protection:

Clothing for Shelter

If you take time to think about shelter, it may be obvious that clothing is protection. Most people, however, think of it more as fashion, and expression of individualism, or even a screen for their modesty. Simply stated, in a world of climate-controlled environments, most people have lost touch with the reason that clothing was invented in the first place.

Footwear supports and protects your feet whether you are wearing a hiking boot to take on the local trails or sandals to cross the hot parking lot to throw out your trash. Though I can’t find a lot of practical use for a six-inch, strapless, stiletto-heel shoe, at least it serves as a protective layer from rough or sharp surfaces.

Similarly, pants and skirts, shirts and blouses serve to protect against brush, vines and bushes if you’re in the wild. Heavy working pants protect against rocks if you’re kneeling and the occasional brush against a barbed-wire fence if you’re out running in the field. More modern pants are adapted to our current environments and activities – some even of materials made to wick moisture away from your skin to help in cooling. Shirts are used for the same purpose as pants and loose, thin shirts are often used as protection from the sun.

Hats, gloves, heavy vests, bandanas, etc. all evolved to fulfill their little niche of the protection game. In fact, much of fashion evolved with these items. Gloves of thin material and hats without brims showed that one of significant enough social status that they didn’t need to be protected from the same dangers as those ‘beneath’ their social status. Some truly outrageous shoe designs that would obviously prevent using stirrups on a horse showed that a person was well-off enough that they could afford a carriage – and thus served to elevate themselves above even those well-off enough to be able to afford a horse for riding, but then subject to the dangers thereof.

Regardless of fashion considerations, clothing was almost certainly developed primarily as thermal protection. Initially when humans were exposed to the capriciousness of the wild, they layered on mud and vegetation, then animals skins and finally, textiles. Once they finally moved into caves and structures, the clothing changed to meet the new circumstances. That brings us to the final layer.

Structural Shelter

Finally, this is likely what most people think of if you say the word ‘shelter’. The words are synonymous now as it is likely that the first thing built was likely to provide protection. But the idea carries more with it than just buildings. Where clothing is something worn for protection, structures can be considered a location to go for shelter – even if you carry it with you like a sleeping bag.

Generally speaking there are two types of structure: natural and artificial.

Natural structures such as caves, rock overhangs, and trees provide some level of protection from weather. If caught in the wild, finding such a structure for shelter can literally be a life-saver. This type of structure, however, is usually temporary and most likely will have some deterring factor. Trees may not protect from the wind, rock overhangs may be in the path of rising water, and caves may be treacherous to reach or outside of convenient distance from a water source.

These deficiencies are why artificial structures were created. Light-weight, portable tents can be placed where they are needed and moved relatively easily. Sleeping bags provide thermal isolation to allow the user to stay comfortable through the night and thus awaken more refreshed. These items, however, still leave you somewhat exposed to predators. Thus the sturdy building that can keep out the elements and predators while providing a place to gather and keep safe items of importance has become the gold standard for shelter.

Conclusion

Just because a building is literally the go-to in shelter doesn’t mean we should cast off the other elements. Keep the basics with you: lip balm and a small tube of lotion. Dress appropriate for your environment and the activities you plan (including appropriate safety gear if relevant) – with consideration for what may go wrong. Taking just that little extra bit of precaution may make those unexpected hiccups be just a bit easier to weather and may help you get back to home where you can once again keep the world out.

The Basics: Skills and Reference

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Most people consider that there are a few basic items you need to consider for your preparedness journey. Usually those are Food, Water, Shelter and Medical. While these are important, they all are a subset of what I consider myself to be an overarching ‘basic’: Skill Development.

A World of Learning

The ideas of buying food, water, shelter or medical supplies are all useless if you don’t have the underlying skills. If you can’t prepare the food, ensure the water is potable, construct the shelter or use the medical supplies then you probably should have saved your resources for what you do know how to do.

All is not lost. There has never been a time in history where it is easier to learn a new skill. With online resources, stores full of books, and groups across the nation who are reaching out to share their knowledge, this is a prime time to learn new things.

Use DuckDuckGo – a search engine rival of Google that doesn’t track your web activities – to search out virtually anything you can think of and you will likely find dozens (if not hundreds) of sites dedicated to exactly that topic. Many homesteading blogs and channels are out there which cover a variety of topics. Financial planning sites can give you an understanding of how to invest for your future. Medical sites (and soon this one) will guide you through basic first aid. There are even sites out there dedicated to astrophysics for laymen if that is what you are into. The point is that humanity has never had it better when it comes to learning potential – and for most people it is in the palm of their hand.

Direct Experience

So, while the Internet is a great place to get exposure to topics, watching videos and reading blogs will only take you so far. You need to take the concepts you learn and practice them.

Gardeners call this ‘dirt time’. You may learn which seeds to plant, what the soil consistency should be, the fertilizers to your, when to plant in your climate, etc. But you don’t really understand how it all comes together until you step outside and start doing the work.

I spent two years reading books and blogs and watching videos on beekeeping until I felt comfortable enough to finally get a couple of colonies and try it out. I was amazed at how much I learned in the first two weeks. I had the basics from my research, but I quickly found that I didn’t even know what questions to ask to get to the next level. The direct experience helped me develop those questions and searching out those answers gave me another step forward in the skills.

So don’t be an armchair expert. If you haven’t gotten out there and performed the skill, you don’t know as much about it as you think you do. There are few guarantees in life, but that one is a certainty.

Start Your Library

Just because it won’t make you an expert doesn’t mean that reading and research is useless. It is fundamental to the learning process. This is why you should develop a library.

It is practically impossible to learn everything you need to know prior to needing to know it. That means that you may have to learn the basics of something quickly. Or you may (as I did with beekeeping) need to learn enough that you then know which questions to ask to move your understanding forward. This is where a library comes in.

In good times such a library may be online sites, subscriptions to newspapers or financial reports, or even television channels which deal with the topics of interest. Since this site is dedicated to helping you deal with times that are not-so-good, it is also highly recommended that you develop a physical library. This could be books on various topics, printed web pages, even saved videos that can be played offline. Student course manuals, specialized magazines, and notes from conferences can be added to your library as well. The idea is to keep a physical copy for reference.

Pass it On

Finally, realize that learning doesn’t necessarily end with you.

Once you have learned your skills and developed experience with them beyond a new-comer’s level, you have something to teach. If you’ve gone through a couple of planting seasons, you can let others who are starting gardens in your area which plants did well and which didn’t. If you have developed negotiation skills or have deep insight into leadership or firefighting or electronics, you can pass this knowledge on.

Write it down and give it to others (for free, or for a fee if it is valuable enough that others will buy it). This starts your contribution to their library.

If you have the ability, teach it directly to others so that they not only develop a baseline understanding, but also start building the hands-on experience.

At the very least, leave a legacy of your knowledge and understanding for those you care about so that, perhaps, they will not have to start from scratch.

Alternate Routes

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This is an odd subject not often discussed in the context of preparedness, but it definitely should be an emergency planning tool that carries over into personal preparedness.

So what do I mean alternate routes?

Route Autopilot

Most of us generally go about our lives – especially when moving from one oft-visited location to another – on autopilot.

We pull out of the driveway, turn right, go down three blocks, turn left and so on and on until we get to our work then reverse the pattern to get home. We do the same to get to the grocery store, our favorite theater, the train station, etc. Once we are accustomed to a route, we use it over and over. We’re on autopilot.

An employee, years ago, was part of the digital generation and despite living in a relatively small town, he was dependent on his GPS to get to anywhere in town or out. There was a restaurant he passed every day on his way to and from work. I asked him to meet me there for lunch one day and he asked for the address so he could put it in his GPS. There were three traffic lights between his house and work; the entire trip took less than five minutes and the restaurant was at one of those red lights, and he was still unable to find his way to a place he had passed at least 200 times in a year. He wasn’t just on autopilot, he was on someone else’s autopilot.

One day the data cable running to town – yes, THE cable, there was only one – was cut. Immediately the Internet dropped and since we were in a valley with no line of site out of the valley and the cell towers relied on the fiber line to get to outside world, all cellular data dropped as well.

In seconds we went from a moderately thriving small 21st century town to the 19th century. Gas stations couldn’t sell gas, banks couldn’t make deposits, ATMs couldn’t give cash. My employee couldn’t find his way home. I literally drove to his apartment with him following so he could get home.

His was an extreme example, but I’m sure he was not the only person in the country in a similar situation. As we become more dependent on technology to help us perform mundane tasks, we get rusty at those tasks or never even learn them.

So despite his case being extreme, there are many of us who need to take a refresher in how to navigate, plan routes, and make adjustments without the aid of technology.

Route Planning

Taking a moment to plan a deliberate route from your house to the grocery or work, or where ever, is the first step in renewing this skill.

Did you first discover your autopilot route years ago? Have streets changed, new streets been built, old streets altered? Could there be a more efficient route? Does the route you take avoid the most traffic / take less time / go fewer miles than a new alternative? If you don’t know these answers immediately, take a few minutes to research. You might be surprised. You can even use your technology to help you make good decisions – this is what technology should be used for, assisting in making decisions, not outsourcing the decision-making process.

Once you have your new route, or have validated your old route, broaden your view.

Researching the Alternates

Now that you’re thinking about it, what happens if your primary route is no longer feasible? What if there is a water main break? How about if a construction crew closes down your route? Where do you turn?

It is always good to have a backup route.

For those of us in and around large cities, being able to navigate to important locations using major highways is a given. If you like avoiding the inevitable traffic jam, being familiar with your alternate routes is just as essential.

My commute to work used to take an hour to an hour and a half, each way. There was one bridge that was a major choke point and there were wrecks on that bridge at least once a month and major wrecks causing serious delays a few times a year. I knew two routes to get around that bridge that tacked on about 30 minutes to my commute. If traffic was backed up to a particular exit on the freeway, I exited and took an alternate route. If I heard about the accident or delay before getting on the freeway, I had another alternate.

Know When to Use Alternatives

That brings us to the next question: When do you use the alternate route?

As above, you set parameters for yourself and pay attention to warning signs.

I listened to the radio traffic reports to know if I needed to take my pre-freeway alternate. I continued to listen to the traffic reports on the freeway and made my final go / no-go decision when I approached my exit-based alternate.

You can do the same. Listen to reports, watch for signs of congestion, or signs on delay such as the flashing lights of construction or emergency response vehicles.

Now Go Big

Once you have a little practice at planning and using alternate routes, expand it be part of your emergency planning.

Do you have a fishing retreat? Do you have friend or family member’s house that is far away? How many ways do you know of getting there?

Does your route pass through areas that may be subject to civil unrest? Does it pass through natural choke points that can easily be controlled or disrupted? Can you find an alternate route that would bypass such areas? That would be your secondary. Can you find another that is even less convenient, but that is virtually certain to get you to your destination? That is your tertiary.

Add even more if you can – and then practice the route(s). Communicate the routes to those you’re likely to travel with such as your immediate family or close friends.

These alternate routes can serve their intended purposes, but like with many things in personal readiness and emergency planning, once you start building or renewing these skills, your mind starts exploring options and solutions. You’re rewiring how you think. You’ll start seeing a world of choices and options to explore well beyond the trip to the grocery store.

Strategic Shortage Preparedness

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It looks like we’re heading to a new round of lock-downs across the country. Even in areas where lock downs are unlikely – such as states where they have sworn them off – there may be an impact. Just like when we have a headache, it makes it difficult to do other things, when one area of the country locks down or integrated supply chain makes it a virtual certainty that the impact will be felt nationally – even globally.

Pre-stock

With that in mind, this is a good time to make sure we have our supplies in order. Do you have your canned meats, your veggies, the items you like in your freezer, disinfecting wipes, toilet paper, and all the rest? If you don’t, consider getting what you need now.

There are three main reasons for pre-stocking:

  1. Ensure you have what you like. Even during the depth of the early-COVID shortages there was usually  substitute for what you like. If the store didn’t have your favorite green beans, then probably had – or shortly received – some green beans. But you have your preferences and during times of stress it is nice to have what you like and the products your familiar with.
  2. Maintain your safety. Regardless of whether you believe COVID is as a harmful as is being reported (we won’t be getting into that), by being able to avoid stores jam-packed with people who are desperately seeking what they need you can avoid the hassle and potential of infection.
  3. Allow others to get what they need. If you have what you need, you can not only avoid the need of being in the store, you can help ensure that those who have not stocked or who were unable to stock up can find what they need.

This last point is something that many seem to not only fail to consider, but actively work against. It is an important consideration though. By leaving something behind and not contributing to shortages, you actually help ensure that the supplies you spent your hard-earned resources on last longer.

Many people prepare not only for themselves, but to assist others who are less fortunate in emergency situations. If these people don’t need to deplete the shelves purchasing items during a shortage, then more people will be able to provide for themselves, thus reducing the need for the prepared to provide for others.

Shortage Plan

In this spirit, have a plan for shortages:

  • Prepare before the shortage. Know how long you want to be able to sustain yourself, develop inventory levels and maintain those levels when there is no shortage, then rotate through your stocks in normal times.
  • During a shortage, replace items as they are used, but don’t exceed your inventory levels. Remember not to completely deplete your items before seeking replacements. Since you’ll still have something in your inventory, make sure to leave something on the shelf for those who don’t. Never take the last item – allow your community to take care of itself.
  • Replenish your stocks from alternate sources. If the local stores are having difficulties maintain their shelves, order your restock from online sources, from stores that have higher stock levels, or with bartering with others in your preparedness community. There will be people who will need that last can of beans on the shelf for dinner tonight. Let them provide for themselves by sourcing your supplies away from where others will be gathering their immediate needs.
  • Prior to the shortage, determine what you have set aside for helping others. Ration these supplies so you can help those most in need. Once the shortage has started, do not replenish your donor supplies, especially from local stores as you will effectively be removing these supplies from circulation only to redistribute them.

By following these simple strategies, you can assist yourself, those close to you, and your community at large. Once the shortage resolves, be sure to replenish supplies strategically so you can be prepared in case the shortages return.