[This message was originally sent by email 3/12/2020 to select group of friends and family – prior to the creation of this site.]
When I sent out the first update I thought I might send one weekly, potentially monthly – as needed. I never thought I would send more than one in a week.
Things are moving quickly though, so here it is, the second one this week. Sorry this one is so long. If you already trust my opinion, you can skip the Intro part and go right down to the Preparation section and save yourself some reading.
Intro
I’ve heard from at least three people that they are forwarding on to others. That’s great. Please continue to send to those who you believe will benefit. It did make me think, however, that for some who read this I am just some random voice in the wind. So, I thought it would be good to let you know something about my background. There are probably even family and friends who don’t know some of this.
I used to be the IT Officer for the American Red Cross. That means that I had oversight of the technology used by the ~120 chapters of the American Red Cross in Texas and the states that border Texas. As part of that job I developed business continuity planning for the chapters and a program that the chapters could use to provide business continuity planning to businesses in their local areas. (‘Business continuity’ means the processes business uses to try to reduce the impact of a disaster situation and stay in business when they are impacted. It is a close relative of, but different from disaster response.)
Beyond the Red Cross, I have over 40 emergency preparedness certificates for coursework completed through the Texas A&M Engineering Extension office. I also hold a Certified Business Continuity Professional certification from the Department of Homeland Security /FEMA – the second-highest level of certification offered by FEMA for business continuity. Since then I have also consulted, researched, planned and implemented emergency response practices.
There is more, but if Red Cross experience and FEMA certifications doesn’t give a little confidence, the rest won’t be worth the time to write or read.
Now for the core of why I’m sending this update: the current situation.
Preparation
For all practical purposes, the COVID-19 coronavirus is here. So while we should continue taking practical precautions to avoid getting it, we should also assume that the likelihood of being exposed is at least equal to the likelihood of not being exposed. It is time, therefore, to prepare for what we would do if exposed.
I’m not medically trained, but I’ve been doing a lot of research and these are the tips I’ve gathered from the US CDC and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control as well as other knowledgeable sources. These tips are not a substitution for consultation with a trained medical professional. If you have specific medical questions, talk to your professional medical provider.
- Prevention. Though most of the guidance is what to do once you have symptoms, still stay vigilant to preventative measures. The CDC has a nice sign for that: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/stop-the-spread-of-germs.pdf
- Acquire what you’ll. The vast majority of people recover at home without hospitalization or major medical care, so ensure that you have what you need at home.
- Acquire over the counter decongestants and expectorants. The majority of deaths from this virus are respiratory related, so make sure you have enough medical to treat member of your household for approximately 2 weeks. Don’t over buy – allowing others to be protected and recover helps you too.
- If you are at high risk (elderly, compromised respiratory system, diabetes, heart conditions) and are on prescription medications, talk to your doctor about getting an extra supply now so that you do not need to go in public if there is an outbreak in your area. Also consider mail order prescription services.
- Use acetaminophen (Tylenol) and ibuprofen (Advil) for fever maintenance – if you can use these medications. Following dosing instructions on the bottle or as guided by a medical professional. Do not use aspirin for fever management. If you don’t have enough of these products to treat yourself and your household for a week, consider getting more.
- Isolate. The less exposure you have to others before you’re ill the less likely you will be to catch it. The less exposure you have to others if you get it, the less likely you are to pass it along.
- If you feel symptomatic, do not immediately go to your doctor’s office. Call them and see if they have protocols for seeing suspected coronavirus cases. If you can’t get through to the doctor immediately, treat your symptoms with over the counter medication and continue trying to call.
- Don’t go to the emergency room for these symptoms unless you would go there with the same symptoms when the coronavirus was not a consideration. You don’t want to be needlessly exposed to this, or any other illness and you don’t want to take up medical resources that may be needed to treat more severe cases. If you are a severe case, call ahead and do what you need to do.
- If you must circulate in public, especially in areas where people may be ill (hospitals, doctor’s offices, pharmacies, or mega-marts with health clinics and/or pharmacies), avoid close contact. Close contact is considered to be within six feet of those displaying symptoms. You should be able to stretch out your arm, and they stretch out theirs, and not touch.
Perspective
Let me reiterate that this is a serious condition and should be taken seriously, however, the coverage of this illness is completely (in my opinion) out of scale with the level if threat. In fact, again in my opinion, the hype around this illness may be more dangerous than the illness itself. People overreacting may be causing even more dangerous situations – such as unnecessary depletion of necessary treatment items so those who need them can’t get them. This is why I recommend that we steadily prepare even during ‘good times’ so we have what we need during ‘bad times’ and aren’t a burden on the system when others are in dire need.
The flu is still a much more deadly potential illness than coronavirus. I’ve heard people say, ‘but we have a vaccine for the flu’ as if that changes anything. According to the CDC, on an annual basis the flu vaccine is between 50-60% effective, and down to as little as 16% in adults (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectivenessqa.htm). So assuming even the highest level of effectiveness (60%), with the lowest incidence of infection (3%) and the US population (327M) we’re still talking about more than 100 times the infections in the average year just in the US as compared to what coronavirus has caused globally.
Of course, it could get worse. For the moment this appears manageable. The best way to keep it manageable is to practice good preventative measures and stay as healthy as you can.