[This message was originally sent by email 3/15/2020 to select group of friends and family – prior to the creation of this site.]
I definitely never thought I’d send three updates in a week, but since this is Sunday, I guess it is the beginning of a new week so we’re all good.
Let me start by stating definitively that I believe the average person in the US has little to worry about with the actual COVID-19 illness. We may have something to worry about in the reactions of other people though. The media is always looking for eyeballs and there is nothing like an emergency to get people to watch TV. Politicians are looking to get reelected, so they are always looking to be seen ‘doing something’ even if it turns out not to be the right thing. Then there are those around us who simply take in what the media and politicians say and let it play upon the reactive, primitive portions of their brains rather than processing it with the more intellectual portion. When we get enough of that happening, issues arise.
Real quick, why do I say that the average person in the US has little to worry about? Here we go:
- About half of those infected are from mainland China.
- Over half of the deaths are from mainland China.
- Italy is being held up as why we in the West should freak out but Italy had the oldest average population in Europe which leads us to
- The average age of those who have died is 80 – yes, that is the average age, meaning the trend is that people well over 80 are heavily impacted in order to offset those under 80
- Based on the last report I saw (on Friday), no one under 18 has perished from COVID-19
- Many who have perished live in third-world conditions where easy access to over the counter medication and appropriate hygiene (soap, clean water) is not easily accessible
- We have a high degree of awareness the illness is out there and are being advised to exercise extra precautions
Ok, so moving on. Part of the psychology of an emergency is that people recognize that there is something impacting them that they cannot control. To compensate they will often try to control some other aspect of their life – whether or not it really makes sense. I think this is a major contributor to the Great Toilet Paper Shortage of 2020. It is also part of the idiosyncrasies of people who have survived trauma.
Now that the toilet paper (disinfecting wipes, paper towels, bottled water, diapers, etc.) is virtually gone but the stress persists, I believe that those who feel they need to exercise control will move on to another item. Just guessing, but right now since gas has dropped to an affordable price, it would not surprise me if it was the next commodity to be hit. This may be offset by potential quarantines (if you can’t go anywhere you probably don’t need gas), but since this ‘syndrome’ is not necessarily logic-based, I still think there is a high likelihood that gas will be impacted. Also, a quarantine in one area can create a shortage in another – an indirect impact.
I suggest you fill your vehicle and don’t let it drop below half a tank before filling again – just so you know that you can continue to get to work or go shopping if you are not impacted by a quarantine. Note, I am not saying you should *stockpile* gas, only that you get enough that you are not inconvenienced if it is the next ‘comfort blanket’. (Some cities have ordinances concerning the amount of gas you can store and where you can store it and, generally speaking, ordinances are usually imposed because something tragic happened.)
I live in a small town, yet close to a major metro area. I try to do my normal work week purchases (gas and lunches) with cash – it helps with budgeting and reduces the possibility of identity theft. So I stopped by the bank where I normally make my withdrawals and it was out of cash in the ATM. I went by another close-by bank – in town – and it was also out of cash. Finally I went to a bank on the outskirts of town and it still had cash in the ATM. If you use cash in your normal daily transactions, please be aware that this could be another target for those seeking some control in their lives. So I suggest that you pull a reasonable amount of cash.
Finally, if we have a major quarantine initiated, there could be slight interruptions to the banking system. Banks require people to keep things running smoothly and minor irritations when a full workforce can be applied to the issue is one thing, but can turn into a major interruption when the workforce is isolated from their normal working conditions. If something like that happens, having a little cash in pocket for emergency expenses wouldn’t be a bad thing. Remember we’re part of a national and international community. Even if you are not directly impacted by a quarantine, you can be indirectly impacted.
So, happy Sunday all. We will get through this. A little preparedness can just make the difference between getting through and struggling through.