[This message was originally sent by email 3/4/2020 to select group of friends and family – prior to the creation of this site.]
Since I’m involved with ‘preparedness’, I’ve gotten a few questions about the coronavirus from friends and family and what could/should be done about it. It made me think that it might be a good idea to have a group message.
Some of you may think it is silly to be concerned with this kind of thing specifically and/or preparedness in general. I’m ok with being the silly one if it means helping you be safer, healthier, or even just a little calmer. But if you don’t want to be included in the future, let me know and I’ll take you off the list.
Since this isn’t just friends and isn’t just family, I’m going to refrain from mentioning specific people, or specific conditions, favoring instead giving more general information. Everyone has also been ‘BCC’d (blind carbon copied) to avoid the massive email storms that can erupt with the liberal use of the Reply All button. If you Reply or Reply All, it will only come to me.
If the situation warrants, I’ll send more info later.
If there is another preparedness topic that you’d like me to address, I’ll see what I can do to give you some practical info.
Feel free to forward.
General Info
I’ll start with saying that from the numbers being reported, this does not look like the next ‘great plague’. While the infection rates are high, the mortality rate isn’t astronomical. More on this later.
Coronaviruses are fairly common. The common cold as well as the seasonal flu strains are types of coronavirus. With the spread of the virus in Washington state and six deaths (as of this writing) in the US and lax protocols around the treatment and release of those infected, for all practical purposes the COVID-19 coronavirus should now be considered to be ‘in the wild’ in the United States. This means you would be prudent to reduce contact with those who exhibit symptoms. COVID-19 symptoms are very similar to flu, so try to steer clear of people who may be presenting with flu-like symptoms:
- Wearing unseasonably heavy clothes and still appearing cold
- Appears feverish
- Coughing
- Complaining of unexplained body aches
Hygiene
Wet Ones wipes have the active ingredient of Benzethonium Chloride (0.3%). This ingredient at this has proven effective against a variety of coronaviruses, though there is not yet a published study for testing against COVID-19. They get pride-of-place here because they are easy to carry.
Many products are effective against coronaviruses. You probably already have some.
- Benzalkonium chloride, found in Lysol sprays at an effective level, can be used as a surface decontaminant.
- Clorox Disinfecting Wipes with Alkyl dimenthylbenzyl ammonium chloride (0.13% or greater) also have proven effective against other coronaviruses.
- Ethyl alcohol is also effective at the 70% (Purell Hand Sanitizer) level as is isopropyl alcohol of at least 50%. I recommend the one with aloe because this stuff can tear up your hands.
With any of these products, apply generously to the surface and let air dry. There are other agents that can be used (included diluted bleach), but some of them stain or damage surfaces, so sticking with the ones mentioned above should give you the ability to remain safe without undue damage to clothes, counter tops or furniture.
As always, the first course of protection is to ensure you have good personal hygiene and you wash your hands, with soap, regularly. Using water only is rinsing, use soap for washing. Fronts, backs, between fingers, you know the drill.
Masks
Counter to what is being circulated by the media and government at the moment, N-95 masks do protect you. Virtually anything that keeps a high dosage of someone else’s coughs or sneeze from entering your nose or mouth (or eyes for goggles) will help. It may not be 100% effective, but it is certainly higher than 0%.
There are also N-100 and P-95/P-100. ‘P’ versions are oil resistant. These masks are harder to breath through so people tend to go without more often or take them off prematurely. Use the N-95, if you need to use a mask at all (and if you can actually find them).
Rather than saying the masks are ineffective, the messaging should be that while you may have some protection from masks, people delivering treatment to patients – who will be directly exposed – need them more at the moment, so please refrain from removing unneeded masks from the supply chain.
Please make sure that your masks – if you have them, if you need them, if you use them – are disposable. If you are using a mask that is not disposable, rethink it. When you remove the mask, put it on, lay it on a counter top, or with other items (such as on your bed, briefcase, purse, etc.), you can be spreading the virus to areas that otherwise would not have been contaminated. If you have a reusable mask and decide to keep it, consider dousing it with Lysol and letting it air dry before setting it down somewhere. Also ensure that you wash your hands and/or use hand sanitizer after your touch your mask and before touching anything else.
Gloves
If you use gloves I suggest nitrile disposable gloves. You should also thoroughly wash your hands after removing gloves. Gloves should be snug, but not tight. Over-stretched gloves can become permeable to fluids and viruses. Gloves are also intended for relatively short periods of time. You should consider changing disposable gloves approximately every four hours with regular use, more frequently with heavier use and any time that it is noticeably compromised.
At this point, I believe that masks or gloves are not warranted. If you’re going onto an aircraft or other confined condition with a large group of people, especially for return from foreign travel, they may be more warranted.
Impact
I’m seeing a mortality of approximately 4%. By comparison, the last great pandemic was the Spanish Flu of 1918, where the mortality rate was about 15% (estimates range from 10-20%). We are still fairly early on and many people who have it but don’t need medical care aren’t being counted. One estimate I saw said that approximately 80% of people who have it don’t know – they either don’t have symptoms or they aren’t bad enough to go to the doctor and be counted. This could reduce the mortality rate significantly.
The mortality rate is highest with those with previously compromised immune systems, the elderly and the very young. The primary cause of death is through pneumonia. So those who should take the highest precautions are those who are already ill, in frail health and/or with respiratory considerations. Having over the counter medication decongestants and expectorants would be a good idea so you can begin treatment of symptoms if being able to get into a doctor is delayed.
Finally, stay aware of your environment. If you see people around you becoming sick and the government has not declared an outbreak, you may still want to isolate yourself from others as much as feasible until this blows over. It will.